Oil Comment
Analysis - Commodity Technical Analysis
Written by ODL Securities | Mon Mar 02 09 06:00 ET
Technical Report:
We saw an 'Inside Day' on Friday with the high and low engulfed by the previous day range. Initially crude went lower but later in the trading session regained a big part of the early losses finishing the day 32 cents down. Although the market is still some way above all moving averages swings within $33.22 - $50.00 range happened a few times since Dec 2008 as pointed by the chart. So only a convincing break on either side can potentially put an end to this sideways market.

The short term trend is bullish while the medium and long term trends are bearish.

WTI:

Support: $42.55 (Friday's low) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 27/01/09)

Support: $40.54 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $47.00 (high of 23/01/09)

Support: $39.39 (low of 25/02/09) Resistance: $44.90 (Friday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $44.52 (Friday's low) Resistance: $48.42 (high of 09/02/09)

Support: $43.20 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 06/02/09)

Support: $42.48 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $46.48 (Friday's high)

Summary:
On Friday crude traded in negative territory throughout the day as some traders decided it was safer to book profits after a 3 days rally ahead of weekend. When the Dow opened news that US government is planning to take a large stake in Citigroup made investors nervous and sent the equity markets down. That easily spilled over into energy complex putting extra pressure on oil prices but later on as stock market attempted a recovery crude turned with it. On the short term the equities markets and associated economic releases are set to provide guidance on oil's next move.

** The ODL Brent crude oil contract (Oil) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK Time **

** The ODL WTI crude oil contract (WTI) trades between 01:15 and 22:00 UK Time **

** The ODL Gas Oil contract (GSO) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK time **

The ODL oil contracts are based on the front month (April) of the ICE contracts:

Friday's Settlements Oil: April - $46.35 May - $47.20

Friday's Settlements WTI: April - $44.76 May - $46.89

The ODL oil contracts roll monthly on the day before the ICE Brent front month expiry on the settlement of the front spread

Next rollover: 13/03/2009



9 day moving average - $40.73 14 day moving average - $39.04 40 day moving average - $40.54

Oil Comment
Analysis - Commodity Technical Analysis
Written by ODL Securities | Mon Mar 02 09 06:00 ET
Technical Report:
We saw an 'Inside Day' on Friday with the high and low engulfed by the previous day range. Initially crude went lower but later in the trading session regained a big part of the early losses finishing the day 32 cents down. Although the market is still some way above all moving averages swings within $33.22 - $50.00 range happened a few times since Dec 2008 as pointed by the chart. So only a convincing break on either side can potentially put an end to this sideways market.

The short term trend is bullish while the medium and long term trends are bearish.

WTI:

Support: $42.55 (Friday's low) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 27/01/09)

Support: $40.54 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $47.00 (high of 23/01/09)

Support: $39.39 (low of 25/02/09) Resistance: $44.90 (Friday's high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $44.52 (Friday's low) Resistance: $48.42 (high of 09/02/09)

Support: $43.20 (14 day moving average) Resistance: $47.48 (high of 06/02/09)

Support: $42.48 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $46.48 (Friday's high)

Summary:
On Friday crude traded in negative territory throughout the day as some traders decided it was safer to book profits after a 3 days rally ahead of weekend. When the Dow opened news that US government is planning to take a large stake in Citigroup made investors nervous and sent the equity markets down. That easily spilled over into energy complex putting extra pressure on oil prices but later on as stock market attempted a recovery crude turned with it. On the short term the equities markets and associated economic releases are set to provide guidance on oil's next move.

** The ODL Brent crude oil contract (Oil) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK Time **

** The ODL WTI crude oil contract (WTI) trades between 01:15 and 22:00 UK Time **

** The ODL Gas Oil contract (GSO) trades between 07:15 and 21:00 UK time **

The ODL oil contracts are based on the front month (April) of the ICE contracts:

Friday's Settlements Oil: April - $46.35 May - $47.20

Friday's Settlements WTI: April - $44.76 May - $46.89

The ODL oil contracts roll monthly on the day before the ICE Brent front month expiry on the settlement of the front spread

Next rollover: 13/03/2009



9 day moving average - $40.73 14 day moving average - $39.04 40 day moving average - $40.54